Misix Library

NCAA Tournament Team Probabilities

March 20, 2014

Here are updated probabilities for each team in the Sweet 16 advancing to each round and winning the tournament.

TeamP(Elite 8)P(Final Four)P(Final)P(Champion)
Arizona0.7080.5510.3760.233
Florida0.6470.5120.3420.188
Louisville0.6610.5020.2600.157
Virginia0.5580.3620.1680.079
UCLA0.3530.2500.1410.064
Michigan State0.4420.2810.1210.057
Wisconsin0.5760.1800.0920.039
San Diego State0.2920.1730.0820.034
Iowa State0.5960.2200.0830.033
Kentucky0.3390.1920.0610.024
Tennessee0.6000.1900.0590.022
Connecticut0.4040.1380.0480.017
Dayton0.5440.1310.0520.015
Stanford0.4560.1070.0450.014
Michigan0.4000.1160.0340.012
Baylor0.4240.0960.0360.011

 

Here are the probabilities for each team to advance to each designated round and win the entire tournament.

TeamPR32PR16PR8PR4PR2P(Win)
Florida0.800.560.350.230.150.08
Albany0.200.080.030.010.000.00
Colorado0.400.110.050.020.010.00
Pittsburgh0.600.250.140.080.050.02
VCU0.500.270.110.060.030.01
Stephen F. Austin0.500.280.130.070.040.02
UCLA0.640.310.140.090.050.03
Tulsa0.360.140.050.030.010.00
Ohio State0.670.390.240.100.050.03
Dayton0.330.160.080.030.010.00
Syracuse0.670.330.190.080.040.02
W. Michigan0.330.120.050.020.010.00
New Mexico0.670.370.170.070.040.02
Stanford0.330.150.060.020.010.00
Kansas0.690.370.190.090.050.02
E. Kentucky0.310.110.040.010.000.00
Virginia0.770.520.300.170.090.05
Coastal Carolina0.230.090.030.010.000.00
Memphis0.530.200.090.040.010.01
George Washington0.470.190.090.040.020.01
Cincinnati0.500.270.130.070.030.02
Harvard0.500.290.160.090.040.02
Michigan State0.780.370.200.110.050.03
Delaware0.220.070.020.010.000.00
North Carolina0.640.300.140.060.020.01
Providence0.360.140.060.020.010.00
Iowa State0.470.240.130.050.020.01
NC Central0.530.320.190.090.050.03
UCONN0.620.300.130.060.020.01
Saint Joe's0.380.150.050.020.010.00
Villanova0.830.500.290.160.080.05
Milwaukee0.170.050.010.000.000.00
Arizona0.830.570.420.310.200.12
Weber State0.170.060.030.010.000.00
Gonzaga0.590.230.130.090.040.02
Oklahoma State0.410.140.080.050.020.01
Oklahoma0.520.230.060.030.010.00
North Dakota State0.480.240.090.050.020.01
San Diego State0.550.290.110.060.030.01
New Mexico State0.450.240.090.050.030.01
Baylor0.600.280.130.040.010.00
Nebraska0.400.150.060.020.000.00
Creighton0.750.470.290.120.070.03
Louisiana0.250.100.050.010.000.00
Oregon0.600.340.160.060.030.01
BYU0.400.200.090.030.010.00
Wisconsin0.670.330.160.060.030.01
American0.330.130.050.020.010.00
Wichita State0.880.620.340.240.130.07
Cal Poly0.120.040.010.000.000.00
Kentucky0.620.230.110.060.030.01
Kansas State0.380.110.040.020.010.00
Saint Louis0.700.250.100.060.020.01
NC State0.300.070.020.010.000.00
Louisville0.790.570.350.270.170.12
Manhattan0.220.110.040.020.010.00
UMASS0.430.190.100.030.010.00
Tennessee0.570.300.190.070.030.01
Duke0.600.320.210.080.030.02
Mercer0.410.190.110.040.010.01
Texas0.560.300.110.030.010.00
Arizona State0.440.230.080.020.010.00
Michigan0.720.380.170.050.020.01
Wofford0.280.100.030.010.000.00