Misix Library

2015 NCAA Tournament Probabilities

March 17, 2015

Below are each team’s probability of reaching each round in the 2015 NCAA Tournament based on our calculations. As most estimations show, Kentucky is the clear favorite to win, with three other teams having realistic chances: Villanova, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Each region’s probability of containing the next national champion are as follows (totals don’t add up to 100.0% due to rounding):

  • Midwest – 35.8% (almost entirely due to Kentucky)
  • West – 24.5%
  • East – 22.7%
  • South – 17.9%

Best of luck to everyone.

TeamSeedRegionRound of 64Round of 32Sweet 16Elite 8Final 4FinalChampion
Kentucky1Midwest100.000%96.450%86.171%77.253%64.017%44.706%31.893%
Villanova1East100.000%90.400%77.824%60.138%40.768%26.191%12.882%
Arizona2West100.000%97.180%74.019%60.778%39.058%19.943%12.163%
Wisconsin1West100.000%90.430%78.577%61.004%35.685%17.452%10.157%
Duke1South100.000%90.387%72.465%49.433%30.774%16.776%7.264%
Virginia2East100.000%88.020%65.719%49.640%27.635%16.005%7.100%
Gonzaga2South100.000%89.100%66.920%48.019%28.125%15.074%6.397%
Utah5South100.000%63.310%44.808%22.259%12.000%5.507%1.978%
Notre Dame3Midwest100.000%80.280%52.581%32.832%10.891%4.280%1.809%
Wichita State7Midwest100.000%70.620%44.203%23.518%6.970%2.450%0.924%
Iowa State3South100.000%81.710%49.083%20.986%8.874%3.335%0.914%
Northern Iowa5East100.000%75.810%45.783%16.588%7.693%3.173%0.908%
North Carolina4West100.000%67.620%42.373%15.930%5.918%1.841%0.672%
Oklahoma3East100.000%71.320%43.518%17.347%6.279%2.391%0.623%
Ohio State10West100.000%61.910%18.593%11.277%4.732%1.549%0.597%
Louisville4East100.000%72.150%37.728%12.371%5.250%1.946%0.504%
SMU6South100.000%68.350%35.241%13.260%5.052%1.672%0.395%
Michigan State7East100.000%62.570%21.377%11.855%4.099%1.490%0.365%
Kansas2Midwest100.000%64.340%30.978%14.415%3.502%1.028%0.323%
SF Austin12South100.000%36.690%21.125%7.839%3.093%1.023%0.247%
Baylor3West100.000%54.080%30.968%8.409%2.990%0.781%0.243%
Georgetown4South100.000%69.400%27.299%9.306%3.434%1.054%0.233%
Butler6Midwest100.000%54.100%22.932%11.117%2.678%0.757%0.230%
Arkansas5West100.000%58.000%26.908%8.002%2.377%0.578%0.165%
Iowa7South100.000%50.900%15.379%7.150%2.467%0.752%0.163%
Georgia State14West100.000%45.920%23.985%6.033%1.940%0.477%0.136%
Maryland4Midwest100.000%52.480%29.223%4.945%2.003%0.490%0.128%
Davidson10South100.000%49.100%14.395%6.483%2.122%0.611%0.123%
San Diego State8South100.000%55.820%15.117%6.046%2.041%0.580%0.116%
Valparaiso13Midwest100.000%47.520%25.489%4.443%1.761%0.425%0.111%
Texas11Midwest100.000%45.900%17.725%7.652%1.600%0.394%0.104%
Xavier6West100.000%52.380%24.285%5.632%1.671%0.378%0.101%
Cincinnati8Midwest100.000%52.800%7.152%3.654%1.425%0.338%0.086%
West Virginia5Midwest100.000%52.620%24.474%3.826%1.419%0.305%0.071%
Dayton11East59.500%31.446%14.530%4.550%1.284%0.372%0.070%
Providence6East100.000%47.527%21.114%5.994%1.509%0.399%0.065%
VCU7West100.000%38.090%6.967%3.414%1.040%0.234%0.061%
NC State8East100.000%50.750%10.143%4.048%1.282%0.337%0.056%
BYU11West56.780%28.901%13.234%2.994%0.905%0.200%0.052%
Purdue9Midwest100.000%47.200%5.598%2.709%0.986%0.207%0.047%
Boise State11East40.500%21.028%9.575%2.987%0.844%0.247%0.046%
Wofford12West100.000%42.000%16.347%3.841%0.919%0.180%0.041%
Georgia10East100.000%37.430%9.384%4.063%0.980%0.250%0.040%
Buffalo12Midwest100.000%47.380%20.814%2.834%0.958%0.183%0.038%
Harvard13West100.000%32.380%14.371%3.298%0.767%0.146%0.033%
New Mexico St15Midwest100.000%35.660%12.725%4.368%0.742%0.148%0.031%
Indiana10Midwest100.000%29.380%12.093%4.092%0.717%0.143%0.031%
LSU9East100.000%49.250%8.481%3.198%0.920%0.216%0.030%
St. John's9South100.000%44.180%9.112%3.098%0.835%0.183%0.027%
Oregon8West100.000%51.710%8.951%3.448%0.731%0.127%0.026%
Oklahoma St9West100.000%48.290%8.404%3.185%0.689%0.118%0.023%
UCLA11South100.000%31.650%10.668%2.497%0.576%0.116%0.016%
Ole Miss11West43.220%18.719%7.527%1.387%0.354%0.067%0.015%
Albany14East100.000%28.680%11.263%2.498%0.470%0.094%0.011%
Wyoming12East100.000%24.190%8.504%1.418%0.327%0.060%0.007%
Northeastern14Midwest100.000%19.720%6.762%2.006%0.256%0.037%0.006%
UC Irvine13East100.000%27.850%7.985%1.261%0.274%0.048%0.005%
Coast Carolina16West100.000%9.570%4.069%1.291%0.216%0.029%0.004%
E Washington13South100.000%30.600%6.769%1.230%0.250%0.041%0.004%
Lafayette16East100.000%9.600%3.552%0.978%0.217%0.038%0.004%
Belmont15East100.000%11.980%3.520%1.066%0.168%0.027%0.003%
North Dakota St15South100.000%10.900%3.306%0.889%0.162%0.025%0.003%
North Florida16South57.380%5.956%2.176%0.553%0.105%0.016%0.002%
UAB14South100.000%18.360%5.078%0.786%0.123%0.016%0.001%
Manhattan16Midwest65.280%2.925%0.954%0.312%0.072%0.009%0.001%
Robert Morris16South42.620%3.657%1.130%0.237%0.038%0.005%0.000%
Texas Southern15West100.000%2.820%0.422%0.076%0.007%0.000%0.000%
Hampton16Midwest34.720%0.625%0.124%0.025%0.003%0.000%0.000%